Key findings

Initial findings show a high level of engagement with the web app. 

Initial predictive modelling found that patients deemed high priority by the model have a 71% 3-month readmission risk and 58% 12-month mortality risk.

There is uncertainty if recruitment and engagement rates across the whole of NHSScotland will mirror that of the local trial.

It is unknown if those who engage with the NHSScotland COPD Support Service will be the patients who will be deemed high or low priority by the machine learning predictive modelling as this will affect potential clinical impact.

What were we asked to look at?

We were asked to provide a high level overview of the NHSScotland COPD Support Service, which comprises a web app which is in use and machine learning predictive modelling which is still in development.

Why is this important?

COPD exacerbations are commonly managed in a reactive fashion when a patient presents to primary or secondary care. This web app and machine learning predictive modelling are
intended to allow patients and clinicians to respond proactively to a change in condition.

The desired outcome from use of the web app is that people with COPD will experience fewer exacerbations and improved outcomes, alongside a subsequent reduction in associated resource use across both primary and secondary care.

Referred by 

Dynamic Scot Board requested SHTG to assess a local trial and evaluation of the NHSScotland COPD Support Service